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Any insights into packed MSN flights?

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Hi Fellow FTers,
Do any of you have experience or insight with Madison, WI (MSN). I'm looking at flights from LGA to MSN. There is a nonstop that is packed (not one seat open in Y) and all 9 seats in the forward cabin empty. On the return (no nonstop on weekends, I guess), connecting through DTW again Y almost sold out and J empty. Does this make an upgrade for a PM or GM likely, or is this one of those situations where within hours of the actual flight, all the first class seats suddenly get sold?
Thanks for sharing any of your experiences.

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