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Skinny on auto upgrades for PM?

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Just status matched to PM here. Hoping someone can point me to / explain the "skinny" on how automatic upgrades actually work in practice.

On two-leg trip to MEX last week, received upgrade on longer leg on booking 3 days out, upgrade on shorter leg one day out.

On longer one-leg return to US, no upgrade yet 3 days out. delta.com shows 4 seats available. How does this go when no upgrade is given 5 days out? Daily check by the algorythms that determine likelihood of sale?

Should I relegate myself to the likelihood of just being in EC (OK, no big deal), or expect that there's still a good change of First-- and/or be looking to game availability on a different routing?

TIA, Ken

(further details on exact routes withheld intentionally)

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