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What are the odds of a first class upgrade in this scenario?

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I'm a lower ranking SkyMiles member who occasionally gets lucky enough to get the upgrade to first class.

In 17 days I have a flight scheduled where I am flying out of a smaller regional airport on a CRJ-900. I checked the Medallion Upgrade list and they won't display the airport standby list right now...please try again. So I checked the number of first class seats that are currently open on the flight. Of the 12 first class seats on the aircraft, 10 are open!

This got my hopes up for an upgrade! What do you think the odds are I will be able to get upgraded? Normally, I have to fly on non-busy days and really early in the morning to get lucky enough for the upgrade.

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